Transparency · Evidence

Every claim, verifiable: the CodeDelta evidence map

We publish measurements, and measurements you can't check are just opinions with decimals. This page lists every substantive claim made across our papers and articles, its source, and — for our own figures — the exact commit pair that reproduces it. Check us before you trust us.

First published 9 August 2026 · maintained as claims are added

How to reproduce any of our churn figures

Every measurement classifies each changed logical statement (LLOC) between two snapshots of a repository as added, deleted, or edited in place. REWORK is the edited-in-place share of total churn. The method is documented in the measurement paper; the instrument is freely downloadable; one command per figure: codedelta --git <old>..<new> on the published hash pair. Instrument validation — bit-identical reproduction across engine versions and runs, with quantified error — is paper E.

Claims about AI-code detectors

ClaimSource
Best multilingual stylometric classifier reports F1 84.1% across ten languagesGurioli, Gabbrielli & Zacchiroli (2024), "Is This You, LLM?"
Fine-tuned neural classifiers exceed 97% — on their own datasetsBisztray et al. (2025), AISec
Comment style outweighs AST structure as a signal; classifiers fold under trivial editsSame study (Bisztray et al. 2025)
Detector accuracy decays across model generations"Who is Using AI to Code?" (2025)
Real code needed a third class — "machine-refined"; pure human/AI cases are rareOrel et al. (2025), Droid / EMNLP
Full survey, thirteen sources, limits includedOur paper B

Our corpus claims

ClaimSourceReproduce
136 codebases, 2010–mid-2026, ~393M statements of churn, 1,437 repo-year measurementsPaper DHash pairs published per row
Established projects cluster near REWORK 17% (curl 16.7%, PostgreSQL 17.1%, Express 16.7%; 18.3% over 3½ years)Paper C §4Pairs in paper C §6 — e.g. curl 1ca678472fb5 → 84ecfb3ecc79
Bug-fix-only human maintenance sits in the same band (PostgreSQL stable branches 17.6% / 18.0%)Paper C §4REL_17_STABLE 174bbc06775c → c768637d6c29 · REL_16_STABLE 130b001c1523 → d569ccd40858
An intensively agent-built codebase reworks 0.19% — one statement in five hundred; 65.9% of its commits carry agent trailersPaper C §3–4The one private row in the corpus, disclosed as such in the paper; every comparison row is public
Pre-AI hypergrowth also collapses rework: esbuild 1.6%, deno 4.0%, vite 7.2%, Kubernetes 3.3% — so a low value alone proves nothingPaper C §4 (deliberate counter-probe)Pairs in paper C §6
Kubernetes' decade: REWORK 0.5% (2015) → all-time-high 11.6% (2026 H1); 2017 the only year deletions beat additionsThe Kubernetes articleAll twelve hash pairs printed in the article
Scale: a year of Chromium (43.5M lines, 326,948 files) measured in one command; 6.96M-LLOC single window (OpenJDK)Chromium report · paper C §3Pairs published in both
80.1% of a real release's churn came from one generated file (npm/cli v10.9.0 → v11.0.0; TRUE_CHURN 1,218 of 6,134)TRUE_CHURN paperPublic release pair, published in the paper

External evidence we cite

ClaimSource
Refactored lines collapsed 24.1% → 9.5% (2020–2024); 2024 the first year copy-paste exceeded refactoringGitClear longitudinal study
45% of code from 100+ generative models across 80 tasks failed security analysisVeracode GenAI Code Security Report
July 2025: an autonomous coding agent deleted a production database during a declared code freeze, fabricated ~4,000 records, and misreported that rollback was impossibleAI Incident Database #1152 · Fortune coverage
Prompt injection is the top-listed risk class for LLM applicationsOWASP LLM01
Model output reaching eval/exec is a remote-code-execution pathNVIDIA AI Red Team (2025), documented in paper B's references

Corrections

Reproducibility cuts both ways: when a figure is wrong, the record says so. Paper C's original Express measurement (0.57) came from a defective run and was corrected to 0.83 on 9 July 2026 with a revision note; the Erlang/OTP study includes a withdrawn first scan (55.6% coverage) and the two engine defects that campaign exposed, both fixed and re-measured. If you re-run any published row and get a different number, tell us — that's the point of publishing the hashes.

Check your own codebase the same way

Everything above was measured with CodeDelta — statement-level churn, AI-agent detection and the AI-BOM, on macOS, Linux and Windows, free to try. Download CodeDelta →